Election Updates: Intelligence update --- new book on reforms and voter turnout

Mike Alvarez provides an interesting early review of a forthcoming book by David Hill on election reforms and turnout here.

(By the way, Mike, nice change to the site allowing us to link directly to posts; also, the Perseus link for Hill's book contains no data).

I share some of Mike's skepticism about the conclusions. He does a good job pointing out how interaction effects have to be carefully parsed out in any set of institutional reforms (not just election reforms).

In Oregon, a movement is afoot to move to a top-two primary system. I've been advising a Portland City Club commission studying this initiative, and I've told them again and again: you have to put yourself in the minds of all of the actors in the electoral drama: candidates, parties, independent organizations, election officials, and voters, to try to even start to figure out how a reform may alter behavior. And what makes things even more complicated is that these actors react to one another.

What do I mean? If, for instance, we implement widespread early voting in this country, surely candidates and campaign organizations will react by targeting these voters. Will this mean that campaigns end up becoming more expensive? Will this increase the influence of money in elections? Will voters end up being more alienated as a result?

(For the top-two primary, I've been urging Oregonians to look to the Lousiana example. There is no evidence from LA that the top-two either increases turnout among Independents or produces moderate general election candidates, a claim made by advocates in this state.)

Too bad this book doesn't seem to be available right now--I am teaching an elections course in the Spring and am casting about for good election reform texts.