Earlyvoting

Clarifying NIST's role in evaluating voting systems

2006-12-20T17:41:00.000-08:00

Regarding my recent post about the Electronic voting systems, the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), HAVA, and the EAC: I received an email correcting and amending my post, and thought I should share it here.

The reports and materials referenced in the NY Times story are available at NIST's website.

I've been told that the report which garnered so much press coverage is not an official NIST document. To quote from the email:

Though not available on the EAC site, the reports are available on the NIST site (. I want to take a minute to point out though that the original report authored by NIST and the Security and Transparency Subcommittee (STS) of the TGDC (PaperOnSIinVVSG2007-20061120.pdf), that got so much press was not an official NIST position as explained by NIST Director William Jeffrey in his testimony to the EAC last week -remarks.pdf) and by the QA website NIST posted to try to clarify some of the misunderstandings of the report information public_affairs/factsheet/draftvotingreport.htm

Most importantly though, the TGDC adopted as well as voted down a number of resolutions:
http://vote.nist.gov/AdoptedResolutions12040506.pdf

http://vote.nist.gov/failedres12040506TGDC.pdf

Thanks to the contact! We at election updates are always trying to keep things accurate and informative. We appreciate it when we're emailed corrections and amendments. Keep them coming!

Clarifying NIST's role in evaluating voting systems

2006-12-20T17:35:00.000-08:00

Though not available on the EAC site, the reports are available on the NIST site (http://vote.nist.gov/). I want to take a minute to point out though that the original report authored by NIST and the Security and Transparency Subcommittee (STS) of the TGDC (http://vote.nist.gov/DraftWhitePaperOnSIinVVSG2007-20061120.pdf), that got so much press was not an official NIST position as explained by NIST Director William Jeffrey in his testimony to the EAC last week (http://vote.nist.gov/EAC-WJ-remarks.pdf) and by the QA website NIST posted to try to clarify some of the misunderstandings of the report information (http://www.nist.gov/public_affairs/factsheet/draftvotingreport.htm).

Most importantly though, the TGDC adopted as well as voted down a number of resolutions:
http://vote.nist.gov/AdoptedResolutions12040506.pdf
http://vote.nist.gov/failedres12040506TGDC.pdf

Thanks to the contact! We at election updates are always trying to keep things accurate and informative. We appreciate it when we're emailed corrections and amendments. Keep them coming!

Absentee ballot fraud in Texas?

2006-09-19T14:08:00.000-07:00

Echoing Mike's recent post, here is a story on voter fraud from the San Antonio Express. Anti-fraud provisions in Texas make it illegal to deliver someone else's absentee ballot. Democrats charge the Attorney General Greg Abbott is selectively enforcing the law, and a civil rights suit is planned.

New blog

2006-04-26T12:01:00.000-07:00

This blog has been merged!

For more postings, please go to:

http://electionupdates.caltech.edu

Maryland battle over early voting continues

2006-04-23T22:00:00.000-07:00

The partisan rancor over early voting continues in Maryland. Republicans now promise to gather signatures and force a referendum over early voting onto the November ballot. The attorney general's office claims the measure can't go to referendum, since it's already the law.

Part of the fight is over where early voting can occur. Maryland limited the sites to one per county in 14 counties, and not surprisingly, the sites are in the county seats: more populous, more urbanized, and generally more Democratic.

Early voting sparks dispute - baltimoresun.com

More on New Orleans early voting

2006-04-17T17:44:00.000-07:00

This is a more comprehensive report on early voting, from the Time Picayune (fresh off their Pulitzer).

Looks like 3% total early voting, quite low by comparative standards.

Consolidating polling places in Maine

2006-04-16T14:23:00.000-07:00

One quarter of Bangor's voters cast their ballot absentee. As a result, election officials are consolidating voting sites.

Unfortunately, if not done carefully, research by Henry Brady of UCB and John McNulty of Binghamton indicates that precinct consolidation may significantly harm voter turnout.

In a series of papers analyzing recent elections in California, Brady and McNulty show that changes in precinct locations, independent of other effects on turnout, may increase absentee balloting and decrease overall turnout. They show this by comparing turnout in LA County in 2002, and compare it to the recall election of 2003.

See examples of their research here

10,000 + voters cast early ballots for New Orleans mayoral primary

2006-04-16T14:17:00.000-07:00

10,585 voters cast early ballots, according to early releases from the Secretary of State in Baton Rouge.

More than 2000 ballots were cast in East Baton Rouge parish, the highest number of absentees. Other regional and racial breakdowns are forthcoming.

Nola.com: NewsFlash - More than 10,000 participate in New Orleans' early voting period

Early voters in WV will use paper ballots

2006-04-16T14:15:00.000-07:00

More implementation delays for early voters in West Virginia. The touch screen vendor was unable to program the machines to handle the new ballots rapidly enough.

Interestingly, based on some reports, voters may be better off using the optically scanned ballots, an "old fashioned" technology that has proved it's mettle many times.

The Herald-Mail ONLINE

Election Law: More Praise for EAC Commissioner Martinez

2006-04-11T12:34:00.000-07:00

Add my praise to that from Hasen, Alvarez, and Tokaji

Election Law: More Praise for EAC Commissioner Martinez

Election administration is hard and thankless work, and Ray Martinez has done a great service bringing the EAC into the forefront of election reform. I hope the Commission finds a suitable replacement.

Early Voting Begins for New Orleans Primary

2006-04-10T10:39:00.000-07:00

The New York Times provides a report on early voting for the New Orleans mayoral primary.

This unique situation retains a grim fascination for those of us concerned with election reforms, economic and social inequalities, and trust and confidence in government.

How not to merge data

2006-04-08T19:08:00.000-07:00

Another computer glitch in Texas inflated vote totals by as much as 100,000 ballots. Sounds like someone doesn't know how to do a data merge.

Interesting thought: new complex voting procedures means that match/merge/update procedures--always tricky in data management--will become very important.

Optical reader glitch snarls absentee voting in Indiana

2006-04-08T19:05:00.000-07:00

I've been coming across lots of reports like this regarding a badly designed optical scan ballot for absentee voting in Indiana.

The Feds are overseeing LA elections

2006-04-08T19:01:00.000-07:00

The Justice Department will send observers to the upcoming New Orleans municipal election. Because LA is under the pre-clearance provisions of the voting rights act,presumably this is so that the voting rights of displaced minority voters are not violated by the unprecedented early and absentee voting procedures.

Of course, if the Feds had provided FEMA relief lists to election officials in Louisiana, we'd be much more assured that everyone's right to vote was being guaranteed.

It's not clear what the Federal government expects to find. They aren't even saying where the observers will be.

The Shreveport Times, which published this story, is profiling the election this Sunday.

Election Updates: Improving the EAC's surveys

2006-04-05T11:13:00.000-07:00

Another follow up on Mike and Thad's blog posting down at CalTech.

In
Election Updates: Improving the EAC's surveys, Mike discusses a new and improved data collection initiative that is underway at the EAC. I cannot voice my support more strongly.

The EAC Election Day survey is an wonderful tool. I have already used it to help advise election administrators in Cook County, IL and Louisiana, both of whom wanted information about prior early and absentee voting efforts. We learned an awful lot from the first election day survey, and the EAC seems very interested in learning how to improve their data collection efforts in 2006 and beyond.

The EAC has a vital role to play as a centralized repository of information on best practices, data on election administration, and advocate for more efficient and equitable election procedures in the United States.

I have also been impressed with how rapidly the EAC has been able to build an administrative apparatus. This agency is only a few years old, is underfunded (in the opinion of most in the election reform community), yet is under tremendous public scrutiny. In the face of all of this, they have managed to initiate a number of invaluable research initiatives and issue a series of reports. And I have found the EAC very receptive to partnerships with the many outside organizations who are interested in these questions--there is no turf battles that I have witnessed.

I hope in the next few years, as the budget noose continues to tighten, Congress doesn't lose sight of how important legitimate, accurate, and efficient elections are to our democratic system.

Continued pressure on LA voting rights

2006-04-03T10:47:00.000-07:00

It's nice to see Mike Alvarez , among others, keep the spotlight on absentee voting efforts for the upcoming elections in Louisiana.

It's a pretty sad situation when you can be polled by the NY Times (March 22, 2006 Story: Evacuees' Lives Still Upended Seven Months After Hurricane), using Red Cross records of who received assistance; or you can receive ongoing relief checks from FEMA, but you can't be contacted regarding your fundamental constitutional right to vote.

Perhaps this is something that was not anticipated by Congress? Perhaps FEMA, the FEC, and the EAC need to talk to one another (they are, after all, located just a few blocks apart)?

I guess, in the new age of security / terrorism / internet / electronic records, voting rights are low on the totem pole.

SignOnSanDiego.com > News > Military -- Senators ask Rumsfeld to smooth military voting process

2006-03-24T10:25:00.000-08:00

Twelve US Senators have written Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld to urge changes in the way that members of the US military cast their ballots. The Senators claim that the military voting system is still fundamentally unchanged from the Korean War.

You can read a story on the letter here. I have been unable to track down the text of the letter.

Those in the election reform community are probably aware of the work by Mike Alvarez on this for the 2004 election (see comments by Hall and Alvarez here ). The plug was pulled, probably too soon, on this project due to security concerns.

Who voted early in Illinois's primary

2006-03-24T10:19:00.000-08:00

First reports are coming out of Illinois regarding early voting rates in the March 21st gubernatorial primary.

A story out of Park Ridge reports that it ranked second out of 137 county voting sites ( this is sites in Cook County )in terms of early voting, "according to figures released by the Cook County Clerk."

The Clerk's website ( Cook County Clerk ) does not report these results yet and I cannot find any press release.

While searching around for these results, I found this interesting website: http://www.fidlar.com/results/us/il/ . This looks like a private company that reports the official Illinois election results. Can this be true? This may be the case at this point because official results are not being reported until April 21st. The Fidlar Company varies in what it reports by county. Some counties show under and over votes. Others show just vote totals. None that I have seen contain early vs. day of election votes.

New OR voting machines hit delay

2006-03-20T13:03:00.000-08:00

New voting machines, intended to increase disabled access to the ballot, have hit a snag in Oregon. This will put Oregon out of compliance with HAVA.

The story reports a last minute dispute between the state and the manufacturer on some of contract provisions.

Full story is here: New voting machines hit delay

Lousiana early voting period to begin

2006-03-19T19:58:00.001-08:00

The much discussed and debated April election in Louisiana is starting, with early voting kicking off on March 27th.

Parish early voting to begin Monday

9% vote early in Belarus

2006-03-19T19:58:00.000-08:00

Reports on early voting in Belarus. 9% of ballots came in early. Belarussians were also able to cast early ballots in Moscow and St. Petersburg.

ITAR-TASS

How to conduct an election after a disaster?

2006-03-13T13:30:00.000-08:00

The plans for widespread absentee balloting are becoming clearer in Louisiana.

In order to accomodate widespread absentee (really, in-person satellite) voting, the state is making creative use of the new statewide registration database (required by HAVA). By using the database, state officials hope that registrars in outlying counties can verify the eligibility of New Orleans residents who may show up to vote (The Shreveport Times).

Meanwhile, a number of groups are criticizing the Secretary of State for sending out "incomplete and misleading" information to more than 700,000 displaced voters ( Time-Picayune).

Unanticipated costs of early voting in Ohio

2006-03-13T13:25:00.000-08:00

Early voting is often sold as a cost-saver.

But as this report from Ohio shows, sometimes early voting can be more expensive.

Particularly when first being adopted, when the numbers of early voters are unknown, counties are having to shoulder extra costs. They have to order some unknown number of absentee ballots (and you HAVE to overorder) as well as man some unknown number of early voting stations.

Elias oped: "Cal ought to give all-mail voting a whirl"

2006-03-07T00:37:00.000-08:00

This recent op ed by Tom Elias, who wrote for the Scripps-Howard chain for 15 years before becoming a syndicated columnist in California, trots out some of the standard arguments in favor of all-mail voting, being debated in the California state legislature.

Elias gets some parts of the argument right, but unfortunately, in most parts he is dead wrong and promote misinformation about how by-mail voting operates.

Elias is right about the number one reason pushing by mail voting in CA, as well as in Washington and some other states--with new paper audits being required by many states, and HAVA requirements for disabled access to the ballot, counties are finding it easier and cheaper to go straight to all-mail voting rather than purchasing new electronic voting machines.

But is this a good enough reason to go to all-mail voting? Elias seems to think it is, but interestingly, argues that by mail ballots 'get counted more slowly.'

Not sure where this comes from--there is no lag in election reporting from states with high numbers of absentee ballots, or from Oregon (which uses all by mail) then from states with high levels of precinct voting.

The reason, at least in Oregon, is that the ballots have to arrive on election day, not be postmarked by election day (as Elias seems to believe).

And Elias misrepresents how accurately signatures are checked in by-mail elections. Would any state be satisfied with a "random sampling" of signatures, or would they expect (as they do in Oregon) a check of each ballot signature?

Elias actually gets these points that are favorable toward vote by mail backwards.

On other points, points that he thinks are evidence in favor of vote by mail, Elias once again drives in the wrong direction.

There is no evidence that vote by mail is cheaper--he mistakenly thinks that vote "by mail" means everyone mails their ballot in. For Oregon, the percentage of ballots that arrive by post office delivery can be as low as 60%. The rest are dropped off at satellite locations.

And while it is true that counties don't have to rent polling places, they do need a large staff to verify every signature and do the ballot counting over a longer period of time.

Paper ballots take longer to count (Elias argues) ... therefore more expensive ... yet Elias also argues they are cheaper ... (which is it?)

Finally, he is wrong to believe that the bulk of by-mail ballots would be cast early. In our state, as many as half of the ballots are brought in by voters on election day. This is pretty common knowledge among anyone who knows absentee and "early" voting systems--lots of voters actually choose not to vote "early" after all!

Lawsuit threatened over early voting locations in Cook County

2006-03-04T13:34:00.000-08:00

This explains recent communications that I have received over the number of early voting locations used in other urban localities in the 2004 election.

A Cook County board candidate, Forrest Claypool, has filed a Federal lawsuit alleging that the number and location of early voting centers in Cook County has been manipulated so as to benefit regular Democratic voters.

This suit is described here and seems to be different from another suit, this time filed by "several Chicago and suburban residents" alleging voting rights violations in the placement of early voting centers.

Part of the problem appears to be that the Illinois regulations give general guidelines as to how many early voting centers are to be opened and what hours they are to operate, but no set rules. The result is that some areas have weekend voting and some do not; some have widely distributed early voting locations and some do not.

Early voting starts slowly in Illinois

2006-03-01T21:43:00.000-08:00

As I blogged a while ago, Illinois ia adopting early voting the right way--during a low profile primary where they can works out the kinks and bugs.

The earlyu reports that I've seen indicate that early voting numbers are very low, however, so low that they may not provide much of a test of the system.

Papers are reporting early voting numbers in the 10s and 20s at many precincts. I have not seen reports yet from Cook County. I'll post these when they become available.

No information yet at the Illinois Election Site.

Report from Adams County here

Electronic poll books: applicable to initiative and referenda?

2006-02-27T16:28:00.000-08:00

I saw this discussion of electronic poll books a few days ago at electionline.org (Newsletters).

What makes particularly interesting is a recent controversy in Oregon over ballot signatures collected in an attempt to refer "voter owned elections" to the May ballot. Voter owned elections (publicly financed elections) were passed last year by Portland's City Council, and are in force this year for the first time.

Some argue that VOE should have been put to the voters, while others wanted to give the system a few years in operation before bringing it before the electorate.

So why does this matter for electronic poll books?

What happened is that a group which financed a challenge to the law failed to have its petitions accepted. Based on a 4% sample, Multnomah County estimated that they were 600 or so signatures short of the number needed (somewhere in the 20,000s). (Actually, now the County is saying they may have made an error and are rerunning the sample)

Some have cried foul. Why a sample? Why not verify every signature (as they do for the vote by mail ballots)?

The problem is that, unlike the ballots, petition signatures don't have a bar code associated with them that brings the signature rapidly in front of the election worker. Each name much be entered manually (assuming it can be read at all), and the registration record checked.

Now how much easier would it be to verify signatures if they had been collected via some sort of electronic polling book. But would government officials allow petitioners to connect their signature collectors with an elections database? Or could an electronically collected petition process somehow speed up the signature collection and verification process?

Utah Senate reconsiders early voting

2006-02-27T16:15:00.000-08:00

Early voting, seemingly dead a few weeks ago, has been given new life in the Utah senate.

Opponents to early voting, led by some Republican state senators, argue that the process is being adopted purely for economic reasons. The state is required to buy new election machines as a consequence of HAVA, and allowing a longer voting period means that they have to buy fewer machines.

Opponents also argue that early voting makes "electioneering" more likely and fraud more prevalent (not sure why electioneering is easier over a longer period).

As with my earlier post on Illinois, some in the state are worried about implementing two changes at once--a move to electronic balloting and a move to early voting.

Story referenced appears here: Salt Lake Tribune - Utah

Early voting has begun in Illinois

2006-02-27T16:09:00.000-08:00

Here are a series of stories reporting on the first early voting in Illinois. Most report short lines, but interested voters, on the first day.

Rockford Register Star

Lincoln, IL Courier

WHOI Peoria: "Early Voting gets rave reviews"

To vote early, voters need to bring two forms of ID. The state is implementing new electronic equipment at the same time that is it implementing early voting. The Illinois Ballot Integrity Project has expressed concerns about this choice, arguing that the machines to be used in some counties are error prone and broke down in 2004.

Sacramento hearing on by-mail voting tomorrow?

2006-02-21T14:14:00.000-08:00

I was asked some questions pertaining to a hearing in Sacramento, CA tomorrow, I presume relating to the request to move to an all by-mail voting system for some counties.

The pitch seems to be that by-mail voting will increase turnout among lower income and minority voters. My responses are below, for those who are interested. I am not testifying, I am only helping another political science professor who will testify (no, not Mike Alvarez).

===
Based on what we know to this point (and that's important, since the terrain of early voting and vote by mail is changing so rapidly):

I have not seen any studies of by mail's impact on primary elections. I have seen research on by mail in low intensity contests (most often, off cycle state and local elections), and the research shows that turnout is higher among regular voters--those who would go to the polls in most circumstances but may not if inconvenienced by the need to go to a precinct place.

There is no evidence of by-mail *expanding* the electorate to otherwise disempowered groups (racial and linguistic minorities).

For citations, Berinky et al. (200x POQ), Oliver (199x AJPS on absentee balloting, not the same as by mail voting), Magleby 199x article on by mail voting.
I think I have already answered this in my response to 1). No evidence of increased turnout. I should note that there was some evidence of increased turnout in the in-person early voting system in Florida in 2004 (see my most recent APSA paper) and in in-person systems in Texas in some elections (see Leighley and Stein APSA paper), but this is critically dependent upon the mobilization efforts of political parties and other GOTV organizations.
Yes, this is exactly what happens, but among those who are otherwise predisposed to vote. All-mail does not make voting "convenient" enough, apparently, to overcome the barriers that otherwise stand in the way of higher turnout in minority and disempowered communities.

So what I would say to the registrar is that, as far as turnout goes, by-mail is not a panacaea. It solves some problems (it increases turnout in local elections and probably would do the same in primaries), but may create others (undercutting the civic event that constitutes an election). We don't know much yet about the latter. The biggest hurdle to turnout is efficacy and feelings of disengagement--by mail voting does not address this.

By-mail voting may make it easier to voter among those facing linguistic or other barriers to turnout, but we simply don't know enough yet to say for sure.

> Hi Paul,
>
> I've been asked by the local registrar to answer these questions in preparation for a hearing in Sacramento tomorrow. Not a lot of advance notice, I know, but I wonder if you can help me? It's not really my area of expertise, so references to any research out there that answers these questions (or just some knowledgable opinions) would be greatly appreciated:
>
> * How do all-mail elections influence minority voter turnout in primary elections?
>
> * Do all-mail elections increase voter turnout in low-income communities?
>
> * Does an all-mail election motivate those to vote who were "too busy" to go to the polls in past elections? (Perhaps minority citizens that have two jobs, are single-parents, etc)
>
> thanks,

Been absent lately..

2006-02-20T12:58:00.000-08:00

Sorry to have been absent lately. I had two out of town trips in a row. News updates will be posted this week in reverse chronological order as I did through the information.

Dan Lipinski: true absentee?

2006-02-02T14:39:00.000-08:00

This one is just too good to pass up.

First term Democratic congressman Dan Lipinski
(IL-3), is facing a primary challenge in Illinois. I suspect in an attempt to brand Dan with the carpetbagger label, his opponent is charging that Lipinski should have been allowed to vote absentee for many years.

Dan received his PhD at Duke University, where I taught for nine years, so I've known Dan for more than a decade. And I grew up in Chicago, though not on the South Side like Dan. Go Cubs!

Anyone whose met Dan for more than five minutes, this guy is Chicago through and through. Those years in grad school in North Carolina, and the short time that he spent in Tennessee, I can tell you that Dan's heart and his head was always in the Windy City.

The main traction on the story is Dan's inability to remember which elections he voted in. Got to blame some bad staff work for that one, but I'm sure he'll have the right answer soon.

The Sun times story is here

Overseas Voting and Uniformed Services Voter Registration System

2006-01-31T00:57:00.000-08:00

This just arrived over the email wires. Unfortunately, I can't go. Only located a few thousand miles away!

======

Launch of First Internet-based Overseas and Uniformed Services Voter Registration System

Date: Friday, February 3, 2006; Time: 9:30 – 10:30 a.m.
Location: National Press Club; Murrow Room; 529 14th Street N.W., 13th Floor; Washington, D.C. 20045
Contact: Susan Dzieduszycka-Suinat, press@overseasvotefoundation.org Tel: +1 202 470 2480; or +49 172 951 0865

Starting Friday, February 3, 2006, up to seven million US citizens and military personnel will be able to generate their federal voter registration applications online, thanks to Overseas Vote Foundation, www.overseasvotefoundation.org.

The technologically advanced project, the first of its kind, provides a complete voter registration solution for overseas and active duty uniformed series voters whose voting program falls under the Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act (UOCAVA).

The launch event will feature a demonstration of the system and a full briefing.
Agenda as follows:

* Introduction and Welcome: James Brenner, OVF Chair
* Situation: overseas voters and UOCAVA implementation challenges;
* Online Demonstration: OVF Registration and Absentee Voter Application: Susan Dzieduszycka-Suinat, OVF Executive Director
* Military and UOCAVA: impact of OVF, Samuel F. Wright, Military Voting Rights Project, National Defense Committee, and OVF Advisor
* Benefits to Election Officials: Cameron Quinn, OVF Vice Chair, U.S. Elections Advisor for the International Foundation for Election Systems (IFES), and former chief election official for Virginia
* Q&A with Expert Panel

To confirm attendance or receive further information
please contact press@overseasvotefoundation.org,
or call +1 202 470 2480; or +49 172 951 0865

Overseas Vote Foundation (OVF) was founded in 2005 to assist eligible Americans living across the world to vote in federal elections. It is a nonprofit, nonpartisan public charity organization dedicated solely to serving the voter registration needs of UOCAVA voters.

___________________________________________
Susan Dzieduszycka-Suinat, Executive Director
Overseas Vote Foundation
http://www.overseasvotefoundation.org

Legislators in LA attempt to get at FEMA list for absentee balloting

2006-01-29T22:38:00.000-08:00

The AP is reporting that two Louisiana state representatives, supported by Cleo Fields (ex Congressman and gubernatorial candidate, currently in the State Senate), are suing FEMA for the names and addresses of Louisiana residents who have applied for emergency assistance.

According to the petition, the representatives need the names in order to inform voters of their voting rights, including how to file absentee ballots.

Some of us blogged about the challenges in holding elections in Louisiana soon after Katrina hit. Who constitutes a current resident for voting purposes? Have officials prepared for the likely onslaught of absentee ballots? Is it the obligation of FEMA to assure voting rights?

Much seems to turn on FEMAs need to keep names private. I can think of at least one survey research lab that would love to have access to that list. Right now, attempting to assess the impact of Katrina on displaced residents is nearly impossible.

Credit goes out to Ed Still's Votelaw listserv for this Story

Early Voting plan for Illinois announced

2006-01-27T16:01:00.000-08:00

Illinois is releasing their first guidelines for early voting, to occur in the March 21, 2006 primary election. Early voting will begin on February 27th and end March 16th. This is Illinois's trial run for the November 2006 election. The guidelines can be found here: http://www.elections.il.gov/Downloads/ElectionInformation/PDF/EarlyVoting.pdf

Illinois is implementing a mixed system, as is used in Texas, Tennessee, Florida, and many other states. "Early voting" will be available at "convenient" locations throughout the counties. There is no indication whether supercenters will be used, or whether voters must cast their ballot in the same precinct that they are registered.

Illinois is imposing an ID requirement for early voters that, interestingly, is stricter than they use for day of election voting. Early voters have to show a government (state) issued photo ID. Good thing to see that the new policy prohibits voting early and on election day! ;-)

Absentee balloting occurs as before, so Illinois has not implemented a no-excuse absentee system. This will be an in-person early voting system with absentee balloting.

I've been talking with the Illinois state elections board, advising them about the levels of early voting they can expect in March and more importantly in November. To their credit, the board has also commissioned a study to test the effectiveness of voter outreach and educational efforts. I'll report on this when these become available.

Advance voting in Canada

2006-01-24T09:24:00.000-08:00

First early voting reports from the recent Canadian election which ended the tenure of the Liberal party--"advance" voting rates are up by a quarter million. I'll try to find the percentage increase since the last general election.

The Globe and Mail: Advance voting up 25 per cent from 2004

Ridgecrest Daily Independent: Our View

2006-01-24T09:21:00.000-08:00

I've been following the move to all by-mail voting in both Washington state and California, as has my colleague Mike Alvarez over at electionupdates.

What's happening? As with Washington, counties in California are finding that the combination of fiscal pressures relating to HAVA compliance, plus the growing numbers of absentee balloters, as well as political pressure from voting reform groups (and faculty like Mike!) make early/absentee balloting the easy option.

Alvarez believes Alameda County's proposal will go down the defeat. Here's another editorial endorsing the plan:

Ridgecrest Daily Independent: Our View

Early voting procedures in the West Bank

2006-01-24T09:18:00.000-08:00

A first look at early voting procedures in the volatile West Bank.

Palestinian Authority security officers have been given permission to vote early, so that they can be on duty during the normal election period. Nearly half of eligible voters turned out on the first day (of three) of early voting.

Hamas has objected to the early voting procedure because the names of voters are not being published at the polling places, as specified in the electoral laws.

Story reported here.

Record requirements in Texas may reduce poll access

2006-01-24T09:14:00.000-08:00

According the reports that I have been seeing coming out of Texas, new record requirements in Texas mean that county officials must use separate electronic voting machines for early voting and for day of election voting.

For those counties that are strapped with funds--already stretched thin to meet the new requirements for HAVA--this means that they are considering (or have already reduced) the number of early voting stations.

The problem, as we saw in Florida and Georgia in 2004, is that as early voting gains in popularity, reducing the number of stations can actually make early voting far less convenient than day of election voting. This defeats the purpose of implementing early voting in the first place.

The proposed solution seems to be this: have a smaller number of "super centers" for conducting early voting (currently under Texas law, voters must cast their ballots in the same precinct in which they reside), then far more ballot stations on election day.

A sample story out of Texas is: here

Maryland election reforum commission report

2006-01-11T15:29:00.000-08:00

I am coming across press reports of the first set of findings from Governor Ehrlich's election reform panel (See Baltimore Sun and WBOT Baltimore, but I cannot find the commission's press release anywhere on the web.

Press reports indicate that the commission has endorsed Ehrlich's veto of four election reform bills that came out of the Maryland legislature.

The report also indicates that an independent study of electronic voting machines is being conducted by Donald F. Norris

Proposal for all-mail voting in San Mateo County, CA

2006-01-08T22:21:00.000-08:00

It looks like the move is on in California to move to all-mail elections as a way to save money and meet HAVA certification requirements. Or so I claim in my quotes in this recent story: Inside Bay Area - San Mateo County Times - Local News

Election Updates: Intelligence update --- new book on reforms and voter turnout

2006-01-06T17:14:00.000-08:00

Mike Alvarez provides an interesting early review of a forthcoming book by David Hill on election reforms and turnout here.

(By the way, Mike, nice change to the site allowing us to link directly to posts; also, the Perseus link for Hill's book contains no data).

I share some of Mike's skepticism about the conclusions. He does a good job pointing out how interaction effects have to be carefully parsed out in any set of institutional reforms (not just election reforms).

In Oregon, a movement is afoot to move to a top-two primary system. I've been advising a Portland City Club commission studying this initiative, and I've told them again and again: you have to put yourself in the minds of all of the actors in the electoral drama: candidates, parties, independent organizations, election officials, and voters, to try to even start to figure out how a reform may alter behavior. And what makes things even more complicated is that these actors react to one another.

What do I mean? If, for instance, we implement widespread early voting in this country, surely candidates and campaign organizations will react by targeting these voters. Will this mean that campaigns end up becoming more expensive? Will this increase the influence of money in elections? Will voters end up being more alienated as a result?

(For the top-two primary, I've been urging Oregonians to look to the Lousiana example. There is no evidence from LA that the top-two either increases turnout among Independents or produces moderate general election candidates, a claim made by advocates in this state.)

Too bad this book doesn't seem to be available right now--I am teaching an elections course in the Spring and am casting about for good election reform texts.

Michigan OpEd supports early voting

2006-01-06T16:59:00.000-08:00

This Op Ed from the Secretary-Trasurer of the Michigan AFL-CIO and vice chair of the Michigan Democratic party argues in favor of early voting, but promotes many of the myths surrounding these systems.

How many times can it be repeated: there is no evidence that early voting increases turnout! If you want to increase turnout in this country, you need to get people excited about politics, interested in the campaigns, and give them real choices among candidates.

Of course, the Republican complaints about no-excuse absentee balloting in Michigan are also fallacious. Most studies indicate that absentee balloting is not more costly (it's mostly a wash, since you save money on election day administration), and security concerns are easily handled.

What politicians are most averse to is uncertainty, and the reason that Republicans don't like early voting is that it makes the future uncertain. Since they are in control of the legislature under the current system, they ask: why change it?

Absentee Ballot fraud investigation in Hidalgo County, Texas results in indictments

2005-12-27T06:23:00.000-08:00

A more recent report into the ongong investigation of absentee ballot fraud in Hidalgo County, TX is reported here.

Missorui state legislator's "survey" claims early voting more expensive, not supported by respondents

2005-12-27T06:19:00.000-08:00

A state legislator in Missouri, Steve Tilley (R-Perryville), says that the results of a constituent survey shows 76% were opposed to implementing no-excuse absentee voting.

Representative Tilley, who also serves as Republican whip, sent out the survey to 7000 households with at least one registered voter. 10% of the surveys were returned to Tilley's office.

The wording of the item in question is not very problematic. From Tilley's press release:

During the 2004 Presidential election, we watched on television as residents of some states went to the polls days and weeks before election day. In Missouri, voters can cast an absentee ballot up to six weeks before election day if they meet certain criteria such as being out of town on election day, confinement due to a sickness or disability, or because of religious beliefs. A legislative committee is studying the feasibility of implementing early voting or "no excuse" absentee voting in Missouri. According to a report compiled by the Secretary of State, early or "no excuse" absentee voting is estimated to cost the state $2,435,699.

5. Should Missouri allow early voting or "no excuse" absentee voting?

Yes = 17.88 No = 76.56 No Opinion = 5.06 Blank = 0.51

Of course, the main problem is that we have no sense of who the 10% who returned the mail questionnaire are. Since the mailing came from a Republican representative, we can assume that a larger proportion of responses came from Republican loyalists, who are also presumably opposed to government spending.

If you look at other question responses here, you see that 80% describe themselves as "pro life, 89% approve of the job being done by Tilley, etc.

Still it is not unfair to include the estimated cost of absentee voting--as reported by the Secretary of State--and ask voters if they approve of the cost.

(One news story makes the odd claim that a large proportion of state employees might have returned the survey expressing opposition because they want a pay increase in order to handle absentee ballots.)

Continued problems with military absentee balloting

2005-12-15T14:35:00.000-08:00

A letter in today's Washington Post argues that more than 1/3 of all military voters who wanted to vote absentee were unable to, because their ballots were lost, were delivered to the wrong address, or were delivered too late to be cast.

The figures reported by the National Defense Committee (here) differ (they report a 24% "disenfranchisement rate"). Still, anything over a few percentage points would be a point of concern.

There is a problem, however. The numbers in the NDC report are based on the number of absentee ballot request vs. the number actually returned. They do report on the percentage rejected because they arrived too late or had some problems with the address.

But do we know anything about what percentage of absentee ballots were not returned because the individual simply chose to abstain? Obviously, it would be foolish to assume 100% absentee return rate from military personnel.

Perhaps we could compare absentee request and return rates from other jurisdictions. One of the best reporting jurrisdiction is Johnson County, Iowa. In this county, more than 94% of ballots requested in 2004 were returned. These figures are dramatically higher than the military return rate, lending some credence to the NDC report.

Election Updates

2005-12-15T14:26:00.000-08:00

Mike Alvarez writes: "This is an area that our colleagues in normative political theory can certainly help us with, but I'm not aware of any initiative to engage normative theorists in these discussions. What basic normative principles should we consider when we talk about election reform? Are fairness, equity and legitimacy the only core principles to focus on? Are there others to consider?"

Dennis Thompson's book, Fair Elections is one attempt to address some of these questions. In a review in Congress and the Presidency , I wrote: "Thompson's air in Just Elections is to identify a set of coherent organizing principles--equal respet, free choice, and popular sovereignty--by which electoral reforms can be debated and judged."

The rest of the review is in Vol. 32 (1) of the journal, which unfortunatley does not appear to be available online.

Thompson's book is out of Chicago, 2002.

Absentee ballot request from Mexicans abroad off to a slow start

2005-11-28T14:47:00.000-08:00

The Mexican government reports that they have received only 2,102 request for absentee ballots, even though 4.2 million Mexicans live abroad and are registered and eligible to vote.

While the election is still seven months away, the slow start to this program cannot be encouraging. And if Vincente Fox was hoping for widespread voting by Mexicans living in the US for his party, there may be a rude awakening next July.

Story referenced from the LA Times

NY Lawmakers push for no-excuse absentee balloting

2005-11-28T14:45:00.000-08:00

New York state is now considering "no excuse" absentee balloting. Along with many other states, HAVA requirements for new ballot machines by the 2006 election has moved this issue onto the front burner.

This story is interesting because it suggests that voters will be suspicious of new, optical scan and other computerized voting machines, and will have more confidence that their ballot will be counted when voting absentee.

If this belief is widespread, than election officials are going to have to do a much better job convincing the public of the security of new voting equipment.

Story in Poughkeepsie Journal

Early voting in Iraq's parliamentary election to begin December 12th

2005-11-22T20:17:00.000-08:00

Early voting in the upcoming Iraqi elections, allowed for security forces, hospital workers, and "prisoners."

Interesting. Since felons can't vote in many US states ...

Early voting in Iraq's parliamentary election to begin December 12th

Absentee voting changes requested in SD

2005-11-22T20:15:00.000-08:00

A change in absentee balloting procedures in South Dakota is being contemplated because of the increasing popularity of early voting.

INterestingly, the SD system for absentee procedure is an in person early voting system, where most "absentee" balloters go through the same mechanical procedure as an absentee balloter voting via the mail. You fill out the ballot, place it in an envelope, then put this in another envelope that also must be filled out.

And all this is being done in person?!

The procedure looks like it's under review, since 20% of SDakotans are now voting absentee.

Story referenced is here

Voting reform goes down in CA and OH

2005-11-08T23:59:00.000-08:00

The big news is obviously the defeat of a series of election reform proposals, including Proposition 77 in California and a batch of proposals forwarded by Reform Ohio Now!

I am of two minds about the California results. Many of my colleagues and friends in California opposed 77, as did Daniel Lowenstein of UCLA, whose opinion on election reform I respect. On the other hand, in the abstract I am a big fan of taking redistricting out of the hands of legislators, who face a conflict of interest every tiem they draw lines. My own work (Gronke and Wilson, LSQ), shows even when restricted by Justice Department preclearance provisions, legislators draw districts to benefit their own ambitions. I think that non-partisan commissions could go a long way toward reducing the partisanship that is infecting many of our state legislatures.

In Ohio, I can only assume that the reformers overreached. I suspect that no excuse absentee balloting will be passed by the legislature anyway; this movement seems unstoppable.

I'll look to others to unpack the results over the next 24 hours.

Maryland commission appointed to study election systems

2005-11-03T11:53:00.000-08:00

The Maryland governor has appointed a blue ribbon commission to study in order to "Maryland's local, state and federal elections. Members will specifically focus on early voting, absentee voting, provisional voting, voter identification and voter verification systems."

It's not clear what sort of academic research the commission will draw upon. The appointees seem well chosen, but the list mainly consists of lawyers and elections officials. Not sure why it doesn't include, for instance, Jim Gimpel or Paul Herrnson of University of Maryland, both of are well-known and well-published scholars of election reform.

The governor's announcement is contained here.

Ehrlich's veto message concerning legislation that required a commission with members appointed by the legislature (not the governor) is contained here.

Claims of electoral irregularities tied to absentee balloting in Detroit

2005-10-30T18:37:00.000-08:00

A Detroit News investigation charges that the Detroit City Cleark, Jackie L. Currie, has engaged in "questionable practices" in relation to accepting and processing absentee ballots.

The News found that:

Absentee ballots with addresses attached to abandoned or demolished buildings
a master list of voters including many dead or moved out of the city
campaigns and organizations hand delivering and returning absentee ballots from senior citizens and disabled voters, and that these ballots were "filled out in private meetings with Currie's paid election workers."

It looks like things are a bit out of control in Detroit. Currie looks to be an old-line politico running the elections office, and these irregularities are precisely why Doug Chapin, Mike Alvarez, and others have called for non-partisan elections officials. These sort of things simply should not occur.

Elections officials should be professional civil servants, not political hacks.

ACLU challenges ID requirements for Absentee balloting in Arizona

2005-10-30T18:28:00.000-08:00

Story referenced in the title is here

More debate over absentee balloting in Ohio

2005-10-30T18:26:00.000-08:00

Discussion continues over Ohio's voting reform ballot initiative. Today's story highlights a Republican bill that recently passed which relaxes absentee balloting, as does the proposed amendment, but the bill also requires ID's.

One wonders if this is a Republican ploy to defeat the constitutional amendment?

There are also some interesting claims in the story about how easy it might be to vote twice in Ohio, whether students are likely to vote absentee or not (and therefore if relaxed absentee voting "subtly" discriminates against students), and finally, if relaxed absentee balloting is actually more expensive than traditional polling techniques.

Today's story is here

Campouts for the Vote! A new youth mobilization strategy?

2005-10-24T14:11:00.000-07:00

So today in class, I began to talk about political participation and how political institutions address the "paradox of turnout." Fairly basic stuff, but familiar to anyone who knows the work of Rosenstone and Hansen's book on the topic.

We walked through a variety of "modes" of participation today, from voting, signing a petition, canvassing, attending a rally, writing a letter, giving a speech, etc. Most professors use this trick--you line up the various kinds of participation, then talk about what sorts of "resources" (skills) and "benefits" (rewards) accrue to the individual. Then you can use this to deduce some potential empirical relationships.

So today's story from Austin is so perfectly timed. In order to get students excited about voting (presumably against) a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage in Texas, the "Campus Alliance Against Inequality" sponsored an all-night campout, including live bands, free food, and free coffee. Ah, yes, the joys of selective incentives.

Partay On! And then vote in the morning.

I just hope no one was hung over.

Story referenced is here

Parties reported to push absentee balloting higher in NJ

2005-10-23T16:31:00.000-07:00

The first stories are coming out of New Jersey after the state relaxed absentee balloting requirements. Both political parties plan to make a push to dramatically increase the number of absentee ballots.

As in many states, the counties provide a list to political parties and to candidates of the voters who have requested absentee ballots. This allows the parties to target their mobilization efforts to these voters.

As Leighley and Stein showed at the most recent APSA, it is these mobilization efforts, and not relaxed requirements per se, that seem to increase turnout.

Referenced story is here.

Taft to sign new legislation on 'no-fault' absentee voting

2005-10-21T14:46:00.000-07:00

The Ohio bill has been passed by the House, and will be signed by Taft. The story is posted at the Toledo Blade.

No Excuse absentee balloting passes in Ohio

2005-10-19T15:00:00.000-07:00

Ohio's new rules have passed the Senate. Dan Tokaji has written about these changes--they relax absentee requirements (no excuse, up to 35 days before election), but require an ID.

Conflicting Reports on Lousiana Population Shifts

2005-10-19T10:03:00.001-07:00

I've been monitoring the various reports regarding population shifts in Louisiana in response to Hurricane Katrina, and the only conclusion I can reach is that we can't draw any firm conclusions. Too many citizens have not made up their minds yet about whether they will return to SE Louisiana, not an unexpected situation given the major displacement they've experienced in their lives.

For example, a Gallup poll conducted in the first week of October indicated that 40% of residents who have been assisted by the Red Cross (and 80% of African Americans) say they will not return. Problem is, this poll was conducted among those who applied for Red Cross assistance, thus likely overrepresenting evacuees with the fewest resources and from the poorest areas of the city. My own feeling is that more than half of the evacuees will not return. Many are finding new jobs, are registering their children in new schools, and are finding new housing. Why return to a city where jobs are scarce and the local economy is struggling, where recovery is going slowly, and where many public services will lag for months, if not years to come?

The problem is that state and local election officials need to start making plans now to either accomodate major increases in absentee ballots or purge the rolls of voters who have relocated to new parishes or states. And the question of redrawing the lines in Louisiana in order to account for these major shifts is still open.

Other assorted links:

The Washington Post reports that New Orleans won't be back to 500,000 residents for a long time, and that the VRA requires Louisiana to redraw districts as soon as possible.
Two FindLaw columnists argue that voting rights are in peril, and that Louisiana officials must relax registration requirements and move aggressively to make absentee ballots available.
The Times-Picayune reports that election officials have asked FEMA to provide emergency generators to power voting machines in case electricity has not returned by election day in November.
Doug Chapin's Electionline weekly has an interview with the LA State Elections Director.
(Fairvote has posted a number of interesting proposals to deal with the fluid situation in Louisiana. Most, not surprisingly given Fairvote's mission, suggest varieties of multimember congressional districts and rank order ballot options.)

'E-Stonia' online vote called a success

2005-10-19T10:03:00.000-07:00

The first reports on the Internet voting experiment in Estonia are coming in (first blogged about by Alvarez and Hall here, and by all reports the system was a success.

There is no statement in the story about how many people the Estonian authorities hoped would use the system, but reports are that approximately 1% of the population voted over the Internet.

The Estonian system implemented an inexpensive ID card system--the card reader costs $24 and each individual was issued a unique ID card. About 80% of Estonians already have the cards, according to official reports, because they are already used for access to tax records and bank accounts. (Ed: not sure what that means--does Estonia have a nationalized banking system?)

This system appears to be effective and relatively inexpensive. I commented on a similar sort of security system in a recent interview I gave to the WSJ on telephone and internet voting. I described thumbprint recognition systems which, although they sound high tech, are actually quite inexpensive in this day and age.

Jason Kitcat (unfortunate name for anyone familiar with US candy) criticized the system, but implicitly criticizes any computer based voting system. I'm not sure that is a realistic position in this day and age.

Alvarez and Hall have written a lot more about this in the recent Brookings volume. Perhaps they can post a bit more about the security protocol used in Estonia.

Story referenced is here.

WSJ article on vote by phone

2005-10-06T14:40:00.000-07:00

Sigh. Give them 20 minutes and you get one stinking quote. Bascially a business story on which of these companies has the edge on this technology.

===
POLITICS AND POLICY
In Picking a President, Voters
Soon May Be Able to Phone It In

By ROGER CHENG
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
October 6, 2005

Picking a president may become as simple as choosing the next "American Idol."

Just as fans of the television hit show dial in to vote for their favorite crooner each season, Americans may soon be able to use the telephone to vote in local elections, and could someday dial in their decision in national races.

The 2002 Help America Vote Act, which was created to simplify the voting process following the debacle in Florida during the 2000 presidential election, helped fund the development of new voting systems. But problems remained, as evidenced by the long lines and faulty equipment that plagued Ohio during the most recent presidential election.

Most upgraded voting systems being installed are electronic devices such as Diebold Inc.'s touch-screen system. But some smaller companies are betting that phone voting may resolve some Election Day problems, including making it easier for the blind and others with disabilities to read and mark their ballots in private.

Vermont is the first state to commit to phone-voting technology. By the November 2006 elections, all of the state's voters who are unable to mark their own paper ballots are slated to use a voting system made by closely held IVS LLC.

To use the system, voters at the polling place dial into a central computer and listen to an automated recording of the candidates' names. Choices are made by pushing the "5" key, selected because the key is usually distinguishable by a raised bump on it. The system then "reads back" the selection and allows the voter to make changes at the end.

While the IVS system, called Inspire Vote-by-Phone, initially will be used only in polling places, there are plans to expand the system to voters' homes. Broadening the use of phone-voting systems to the home would make them more convenient for people with disabilities and could even boost turnout among all voters. It also raises concerns over the ability to verify the voter's identity.

"How can phone voting be set up so you're assured the person on the other end of the line is the appropriate party?" asked Paul Gronke, a political-science professor at Reed College in Portland, Ore., who specializes in nontraditional voting methods. Security remains a primary obstacle to voting by phone, he said.

All phone voting under the Vermont system currently takes place at the polling site, allowing a voter's identity to be verified easily. Vermont Secretary of State Deborah Markowitz said she expects around 5,000 to 10,000 participants. She added that the state is looking to eventually bring the system to the home and to make it available to overseas and military personnel, but that prospect adds complications in security and costs. The state paid $635,000 for the system, and would likely have to pay more to expand its reach.

Yung Nguyen, chief executive of IVS, said the Louisville, Ky., company is exploring ways to bring the voting system to the home. One possibility is for a government-issued personal identification number to be combined with a registered home phone that could be verified through caller ID.

Another voting-system maker, closely held PhonElect, is taking a more aggressive route in its bid to get voters to use the phone. While no states run its voting system yet, the company is seeking federal certification from the federal Election Assistance Commission, which Chief Executive Patrick Tittle believes it will get by the end of the year.

To verify a voter's identification, the St. Paul, Minn., company's system asks for a driver's license ID number, and a random question on that ID such as weight or height. The system also records the voice of the caller for later verification.

PhonElect has hit some initial snags. In April, the company showed off its system during a demonstration in Oregon, and fared poorly against other systems, including IVS. "The system I would say comparatively is slower than the other phone systems I tried," said Jeanne-Marie Moore, a community activist at the demonstration. Mr. Tittle acknowledged that there were problems with the trials, partly attributed to the long verification process. He said changes were being made. The company has run test programs in Oregon, Montana and Wisconsin.

Advanced Voting Solutions Inc. is working on a system that uses biometric technology, which can read and compare a voice with a voice print from a database. "User ID would be a slam dunk with speech verification," said Paul Kowal, president of Kowal & Associates, a consulting firm.

The closely held Frisco, Texas, company is in the early stages of development of its system. Vice President Larry Ensminger said the company is focusing on its core touch-screen business, and is looking to do some pilot programs early next year.

Write to Roger Cheng at roger.cheng@dowjones.com1
URL for this article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB112856007075761248.html

I think I was quoted ...

2005-10-06T14:23:00.000-07:00

So I think I was quoted in stories today in the Wall Street Journal and the Cleveland Plain Dealer on vote-by-phone and other convenience voting systems.

Can't find it on the web. I have some media interviews tomorrow on the same topic and I'd like to know what I said! If you find me and I didn't say anything too stupid, can you forward the story to paul.gronke@gmail.com?

Thanks,
Paul g.

Population Loss Altering Louisiana Political Landscape

2005-10-03T23:44:00.000-07:00

Just a heads up to today's story in the New York Times that reports the first reliable figures on population shifts and population loss in Lousiana.

As Thad Hall speculated over at electionupdates, and I wrote here, it is now clear that:

Louisiana will lose one or two Congressional seats as a result of displacement after the hurricane
The racial composition of Louisiana's congressional districts will change substantially, if not tremendously, as African Americans relocate to more northerly and nortwesterly parishes
The overall result will be to reduce the number of Democratic seats in Congress potentially by two.

Still unanswered, also a topic that Thad and I worried about before, is how election officials are going to handle these new and displaced voters.

Story can be found here.

More on the EDS Report: How to count early voting

2005-10-03T12:21:00.000-07:00

Thad Hall has alerted readers to the EDS powerpoint presentation, available at their website.

The Oregon data, while accurate insofar as the election day survey is concerned, is erroneous. It points out the complexities involved in collecting these sorts of data across jurisdictions that use different definitions and term and count things in very different ways.

(As Mike Alvarez pointed out previously, the EAC had issued an RFP that was supposed to help address these problems in data collection, but now they've withdrawn the RFP and are apparently going to wait until next fiscal year. This is unfortunate, given the scrutiny under which the 2008 election will be placed.)

Slides 21-23 of Kim Brace's presentation show the problem most clearly.

Oregon is reported as having 75-89.9% of voters "voting in a polling place on election day." Of course, no one actually votes in a polling place in Oregon. It's just that the language of the EAC survey, "3a. Total number of ballots cast in polling places (state-wide) on election day (for Oregon – by mail); 3b. Total number of ballots cast on election day by county/local election jurisdiction" ended up being reported by Oregon officials as all ballots."

(Why, by the way, isn't the number over 90% for Oregon--there aren't more than 10% of the ballots cast other than by the conventional "by mail" method.)

On the next slide, 0-9.9% of Oregon voters cast "absentee" ballots--these, by the way, are voters who cast ballots outside of the state (military, living abroad, etc). In Oregon election administration lingo, these are the "absentee" voters.

Final slide, #23, number of Oregon voters who voted "early." Reported as "no data." But as any reader of this blog knows, Oregon has some of the highest quality election data available, and anyone can find out precisely how many ballots were processed (although not cast) before election day.

The presentation is incredibly valuable. But collecting these data remains a real challenge, and one I hope the EAC is able to address soon.

How to interpret the EDS / EAC Report

2005-09-29T15:19:00.000-07:00

I've received a few emails regarding the EAC Election Day Survey report prepared by Election Data Services.

In particular, my comments regarding race and absentee ballot usage seem to be contradicted by Chapter 5 of the report.

I'm happy to be proved wrong, but it's very important to understand how EDS is reporting their results. An individual "case" in the report is not the individual, but the "jurisdiction".

This means that you cannot assume anything about individual behavior, and more importantly you cannot derive national averages from these data without weighting by jurisdiction size.

Thus, this paragraph (from Chapter 5 of the report) ...

Predominantly Hispanic jurisdictions reported the highest request rate for absentee ballots, 13.6 percent, slightly more than twice the lowest reported rate in predominantly non-Hispanic Black jurisdictions, at 5.7 percent. Predominantly non-Hispanic White jurisdictions reported a rate, 10.9 percent, slightly lower than predominantly Hispanic jurisdictions. Predominantly non-Hispanic Native American jurisdictions reported a rate, 6.1 percent, slightly higher than predominantly non-Hispanic Black jurisdictions.

... tells us very little about the relative rates of absentee ballot usage among whites, blacks, and hispanics.

It says what is says. For instance, among "predominantly Hispanic" jurisdictions, the average rate of absentee ballot request was 13.6 percent.

Those jurisdictions may vary in population size from densely urbanized counties in Arizona, New Mexico, and California to rural counties in Southwest Texas, northern New Mexico, southern Colorado, and northern Nevada.

Minimally, if we want to make a rough estimate of national averages, we need to weight the jurisdictions by the population in each county.

Upcoming Ohio vote on early voting

2005-09-29T13:14:00.000-07:00

Ohioans are voting on November 8th to amend their Constitution and allow early voting.

According to the sponsors, Reform Ohio Now,

"We look at this as a no-brainer in terms of increasing voter participation," Jerse said. "Long lines in 2000 and 2004 made more people interested in having no-fault absentee ballots.

"It's more convenient for people if they have children in day care or job conflicts, things like that."

Jerse said he does not believe competing campaigns would manipulate early voting.

"I don't know that it will make all that much difference to the way campaigns operate, except campaigns will take advantage of the fact that they can send literature to people they know are going to vote," he said.

A political scientist, Herb Asher, is heading up Reform Ohio Now. I have the greatest respect for Herb's work, so I'm disappointed that his organization is misrepresenting all the scholarship on early voting.

As I've posted many times here, there is virtually no evidence that early voting increases the electorate. Yes, it does increase turnout but only in low-profile contests, and only by encouraging turnout among regular voters. It does not bring new citizens, disempowered citizens, young citizens, or disaffected citizens back into the process.

The claim that it won't alter campaigning is unbelievable--talk to anyone who runs campaigns in early voting states, as I have and as Bob Stein has down at Rice, or just call up the RNC or DNC. Early voting has a tremendous impact on campaigns. They have to run a two week rather than one day mobilization effort. They waste money because they don't know who has already turned out.

I applaud Reform Ohio Now's efforts to increase citizen awareness, remove the impact of big money on campaigns, and make redistricting a non-partisan process. They are attacking trust in government--THE key reason that many citizens don't vote.

But voting by mail has little to do with these goals, and by reducing the impact of election day as a community wide civic event, they may end up hurting turnout more than helping it.

If VBM is adopted, it should be adopted because a) so many citizens already vote absentee (as in Washington state), b) because citizens like it, and c) because the ballot counting process is less expensive and more accurate.

I'd prefer we try things like having election day holidays or 24 hour voting periods, however, before we move wholesale to voting by mail.

Story referenced is here

"Out of Country" Voting (OCV) in Conflict Zones

2005-09-26T15:04:00.000-07:00

Just got the new copy of "Democracy (at sign) Large"in my mailbox.

In a special section on elections, there is a fine article by Ben Goldsmith, current the Deputy Chief Elections Officer in Afghanistan.

Ben writes about the challenges facing a nation that wants to encourage political participation by all of its citizens, but which has a large diaspora, in the case of Afghanistan and Iraq (the two cases considered in the article), disaporas caused by recent war and continuing civil unrest.

I can't do justice to the article here, and encourage everyone to look at it, but in brief, Ben considers:

The political question. Do domestic political actors want the diaspora to vote? How large is the diaspora relative to the domestic population? Will including the diaspora help stablize the new regime by encouraging participation of citizens presumably living in more stable settings, or will there be suspicion about those living abroad, presumably subject to "foreign" influences?
The registration question. Presuming that you have decided to allow citizens living abroad to vote, how do you confirm their qualifications?
The diplomatic question. Not every county will welcome campaign mobilization by a foreign nation within its borders. In the case of Iraq and Afghanistan, Ben has a nice discussion of how "Memoranda of Understanding" (MOU) were required with Iran, Pakistan, and 12 other nations.
The cost and administration questions. Simple enough: who pays for what will be more complicated and presumably more expensive election machinery? How will you actually administer the ballots (by mail? with local election machinery? at diplomatic missions?).

These are but a few of the important questions that are raised by OCV elections. In the specific cases of Iraq and Afghanistan, as an illustration, the country's handled the difficult issue of timing (elections were held so rapidly after the end of the conflict) by allowing citizens to "register" and "vote" at the same time, and then keeping the records available for challenge.

I've written about diaspora and OCV elections in this blog. Mexico has legalized voting by citizens living in the United States. This will in all likelihood result in massive GOTV and campaign rallies in LA, San Diego, and other American cities. Other countries, including Ghana, Phillipines, Israel, and Sri Lanka have recently relazed expatriate voting requirements.

It will be interesting to see how the administrative hurdles are overcome, but perhaps more interesting will be the new political dynamics that are created by these new, large, and potentially highly influential expatriate voting segments.

For a real debate over REAL ID's

2005-09-25T18:34:00.000-07:00

Is it possible to have a real debate about the REAL id?

An editorial in today's St. Petersburg Times typifies the short of shallow thinking that has surrounded the Carter Baker commission proposal an identification requirement at the polling place.

First, the Times claims that the identification requirement discriminates against individuals who do not have proper documentation (birth certificate, social security card).

But wait! How can such individuals register in the first place--don't they need such documents to even get on the rolls? Requiring an ID at the polls will not reduce turnout among people without proper Idocuments because they'll never have been registered in the first place.

Second, the Times makes the bad Katrina analogy. The survivors of Katrina, they argue, would have a hard time coming up with proper documentation and would be disenfranchised.

Of course, this is policy making of the lowest common denominator. We should not fashion our election laws based on the worst natural disaster to hit the US in a century or longer. Of course, we should figure out ways to ensure that hurricane evacuees--and anyone displaced by a natural or man made disaster--has their voting rights assured. But that is a special, particular case, and one that requires a special, particular solution. (In fact, Mike Alvarez, Thad Hall, and I are proposing to study just this kind of circumstance. )

REAL Id's should be debated on their merits, not on made up crises or extreme scenarios. The relevant considerations are:

Are Americans ready for a national ID card? American's historical distrust of central government says "no."
Can ID cards be made free? They must be in order to be equitable.
Can the other required documentation be made very low cost or free? Theoretically there is no reason to say "yes" but this requires coordinating across literally thousands of local jurisdictions.
Can we formulate a way to subject absentee ballots to the same level of scrutiny? The answer is "yes" -- there are technological solutions out there, if we'd only adopt them Thumbprint technology, for example, as high-tech as it sounds, is actually quite inexpensive and reliable.

Race and Absentee Balloting

2005-09-22T17:27:00.000-07:00

In a previous comment, Justin Levitt of the Brennan Center challenged my comments on race and absentee balloting.

This is an issue I've been interested in, but have been frustrated by the lack of good datasets. I've begun poking around in response to Justin's comments. Of course, what did I find but my own publicly available work does show continued racial disparities with respect to early voting.

See page 13 of my report, "Early Voting: Lessons for Progressives," delivered to the Progressive Targeting Conference at the Center for American Progress.

The data are still inconclusive, however. I have merged all types of "early" voting in this table, and the disagreement concerns absentee balloting only (in an in-person system, presumably ID would be checked no differently than on election day). Also, I did not control in those tables for geographical differences in the availability of early voting (and I don't place much credence in the tables for that reason--see my comments in the text).

I'm going to pursue this a bit further and will post any results here. If the Brennan Center has the resources to pursue this question, I'd start by going to a state that reports race in its registration and turnout datasets, and then compare the absentee percentages by race (for example, North Carolina).

The other thing to do is to analyze the NAES data (only 2000 is available at this time), predicting absentee ballot usage by race and a variety of other indicators. I'm sending off an RA to pursue this avenue.

More Carter-Baker commentary

2005-09-22T15:46:00.000-07:00

Dissent from Richard Hasen in today's CSM. It captures much of what Hasen wrote on his blog, highlighting the positive features of the report but dissenting on the ID question. I don't think Hasen is opposed to an ID requirement, but thinks that the mechanics are problematic at this point. And by taking such a strong position on the ID, Hasen believes the commission will undermine its own effectiveness.

Dan Tokaji at OSU Law School has a similar take. Dan helpfully summarizes other commentary.

Finally, electionline.org's Doug Chapin gives a third summary of opinions (with a particularly nice list of newspaper editorials) in his weekly report (Sept 22 date).

Brennan Center folks wrong on race and absentee balloting

2005-09-19T18:32:00.000-07:00

The Brennan Center has published a long response to the Carter-Baker report. I've been working my way through it tonight.

One thing jumped out at me: their claim that there is a "double standard" with respect to absentee balloting, that is "especially disturbing in light of data, examined by the Commission's predecessor, that white voters are about twice as likely as black voters to cast an absentee ballot."

This is not supported by the original report that they reference. Hansen reports data from the 1996 Current Population Survey regarding absentee balloting, showing that 9% of whites report voting absentee while only 4% of Blacks report voting via this mode.

Here's the problem--in 1996, a number of states had already begun to relax their absentee balloting requirements. States with large African American populations, especially those located in the South and NE, still had very restrictive rules. We don't know whether the differences found in the 1996 CPS report are due to regional differences in laws or something about race.

Stein's work in Texas is cited just below the table in the Hansen report (on pg. 4), and I quote: A better sense of the demographic composition of early and Election Day voters comes from a study of Texas by Robert Stein. The Texas investigators interviewed voters as they exited polling sites on Election Day and as they exited early voting stations during the three-week period of early voting in 1994. Stein found some significant differences between early and Election Day voters. The most important was age: Just as older voters tend to vote absentee so older voters tend to vote early. In fact, more than a third of the early voters in 1994 were over the age of 60 and more than half were over 50. In contrast, the youngest voters, who are overrepresented among absentee voters, were underrepresented among early voters. The circumstances that cause absentee usage among the youngest voters, absence from the jurisdiction during Election Day, are also the circumstances that preclude early voting. Stein also found some small differences in early voting by gender, with men more likely to be early voters than women, and by income, with poorer voters more likely to turn out early (the opposite of the pattern for absentee voters).

This is in line with other data that I've seen to this point: there are few if any racial differences in early or absentee voting, and what patterns exist seem to be driven more by partisan mobilization patterns than by anything fundamentally racial.

When to remove partisanship from partisan elections

2005-09-19T17:52:00.000-07:00

One last reaction to the Carter-Baker report.

I agree with Mike Alvarez, Thad Hall, and Rick Hasen: the CB call for non-partisan election administrators is a good idea. It would be simple to implement, and in fact should save money in those many states and localities that elect such officials. It will enhance professional growth and development in this very important area. And it ought to result in more competent election administration.

What occurs to me is that this proposal is in the same spirit as calls for non-partisan redistricting commissions (for instance, Prop 77 in California), a position my totally unscientific survey and conversations with political science colleagues says is the conventional wisdom among scholars.

Many bemoan the growth of partisan polarization in the US Congress and many state legislatures, and somehow want to get parties out of politics. Here in Oregon, we're going to vote on a top-2 primary system in 2006; there is another proposal for a non-partisan legislature that may also make it to the ballot.

Non-partisan redistricting commissions, one that would draw lines without respect to incumbency, but would honor existing communities of interest, is a better solution. This way, we'd avoid politicians who draw lines only to benefit their own party or their own political position. We'd stop the practice of cutting up cities and neighborhoods just to allocate particular types of voters. And I suspect, even in the short run, elections would become more competitive and we'd see fewer partisan extremists.

Yes, some areas of the country have become reliably Republican or Democratic, and there is no way to force a competitive two party election in those areas. But in a state like Oregon, there is no reason that we should not have four or even five competitive contests each cycle.

We can't remove parties from politics, but that doesn't mean we can't help make party politics more competitive.

Carter Baker Report

2005-09-19T17:42:00.000-07:00

Much reaction about the election reform community on the Carter Baker commission report. Fairness in advertising; I was commissioned to write a report on ballot integrity and vote by mail for the commission.

The sections of signature checking and vote by mail come from my work. I had quite a time convincing the folks at the Commission that Oregon really checked every single signature. In one interesting conversation, I just kept repeating "yes, they check every single signature."
"How many signatures do they skip?"
"EVERY Single Signature."

This point has been missed by some critics who, focusing on the REAL ID proposal, believe that absentee and vote by mail provisions treat certain voters differently. Not true--REAL IDs woud presumably be used when a voter first registers, from then on, signature checks would be used.

Some other thoughts and reactions:

Rick Hasen is, as usual, right on target, highlighting the positive aspects of the report but complaining about the scattershot recommendations. As he predicted, blog and press relsease reactions already focus on some of the less central aspets of the report.
Rob Richie (Fairvote.org) , at Accuracy.org, criticizes the report for not recommending IRV.
The directors of VoteTrustUSA.org at Counterpunch, criticize the report for not suggesting ways to break the two party monopoly on elections.
John Conyers Jr. says that the recommendation for IDs is a thinly veiled Republican plot to disenfranchise citizens.
Mike Alvarez and Thad Hall provide their own reactions, noting that some of the recommendations repeat initiatives taking place on other fronts. Most importantly, the suggestion for interoperability, far from being "expensive and complex" (according to Tova Wang), could actually simplify voter registration and ballot administration nationwide.
Tova Wang is right that the Commission was particularly interested in ballot integrity issues. I suspect, however, that they agree with Wang that voter distrust is an important issue; they disagree with her whether ballot integrity matters to trust.
Our own research, albeit limited to Miami-Dade, indicates that those voters who do report concerns that their ballot will be counted accurately are significantly less likely to take advantage of new balloting systems.
All the focus on election administration won't solve the participation problem anyway. Fundamentally, the way to increase participation is to increase feelings of empowerment and efficacy in the population.

Arggh

2005-09-19T15:45:00.000-07:00

My pirate name is:

Captain Sam Bonney

Even though there's no legal rank on a pirate ship, everyone recognizes you're the one in charge. You can be a little bit unpredictable, but a pirate's life is far from full of certainties, so that fits in pretty well. Arr!

Get your own pirate name from fidius.org.

Bill in US House attempts to guarantee absentee voting rights to displaced citizens

2005-09-18T21:44:00.000-07:00

Proposed legilsation in the US House of Representatives attempts to assure absentee voting rights to citizens displaced by Hurricane Katrina.

HR3734, sponsored by Alabama Rep. Arthur Davis, extends overseas voting rights to citizens who certify that they have been displaced by katrina. It looks like all the bill requires is a "certification" or "affidavit" to a state official.

Interestingly, the impact of this is that it may allow Louisiana residents to continue to vote in LA elections through 2008, even though many may never return to the state.

Demopolis Times Story

Belated Blogging of APSA

2005-09-14T08:42:00.000-07:00

This is a belated posting on APSA. Sorry that I didn't get the chance to write during the conference, or after. The first two weeks of the semester at Reed College can be overwhelming.

My panel on Early Voting and the 2004 Election went well. The panel started out with a little humor from the panel chair, John McNulty of University of Binghamton (newly minted PhD out of Berkeley). I wasn't sure if John knew that I had organized the panel and solicited all the papers. I didn't expect the section head to choose a chair and discussant, but was happy to get that duty out of my hands. But since I was scheduled to deliver one paper on Early Voting in Oregon, and had added my name to another paper on Early Voting in Florida, and had organized the panel, well, John decided I needed to be on all the papers. Ha ha.

But I deserve no credit for pushing this agenda forward. The other panelists are doing excellent work in the area. First off was Kate Kenski, newly minted PhD out of U Penn (Jamieson student, worked a lot with NAES). Kate has foolishly taken a job in the Communications Department at University of Arizona! Kate assures me that she'll continue to come to political science meetings. I hope so--her work in the NAES has been excellent. While I wish the NAES would release their data to the academic community a bit sooner (it's already been nearly a year, folks!), it's only through Kate's efforts that we have a battery of items on early voting, including the only survey that asks whether an early voter "regrets" casting the ballot early.

Kate found that early voters are somewhat older, somewhat better educated and informed, but otherwise differ little on most attitudinal measures. (I replicate this finding with different surveys here, here, and here.). Where Kate needs to go next is to push some of these results in a multivariate direction--her paper included a host of bivariate differences (or lack thereof), but we don't know how many of these are sustained.

Mike Traugott delivered the next paper--Mike has been working with a group of scholars on ballot technology issues, supported by the NSF. (I have to highlight the work of Mike Hamner, a third newly minted PhD on this panel, who, in collaboration with Mike, has published some excellent papers on vote by mail in Oregon. Unlike Kathleen, Traugott does the right thing and keeps his students in Poli Sci!). The paper seemed somewhat preliminary, but reported on some fascinating experimental and empirical comparisons between punchcard and optical voting machines. The data were pretty clear--the computer based technology is far superior by almost any measure (voting errors, roll off, etc). I expect more coming from this group over the next year.

My own paper, co-authored with Benjamin Bishin of the University of Miami and Daniel Stevens of Hartwick College, along with Eva Galanes-Rosenbaum, my RA at Reed College, can be found at the earlyvoting.net website. I won't go too deeply into the results here--I am most interested in our finding that people who trust government more are willing to vote early, an obvious finding perhaps upon reflection, but one that was unexpected and has been up to now unexamined in the literature. Mike Alvarez and Thad Hall blogged on the paper; go read this for an able critique.

Finally, Jan Leighley (newly moved to Arizona--Congrats Jan!), Bob Stein (newly returned to the Department from the Dean's Office--congrats Bob!), and a student whose name I forgot, continued their research on in-person early voting and party mobilization in Texas. This was the best and most complete paper on the panel. In it, Leighley and colleagues argue that party mobilization efforts surrouding early voting are only likely to help Democrats, because Republican early voters are committed early voters. The mobilization push does not increase their numbers.

Very interesting work for anyone interested in how early voting may affect mobilization strategies.

If I find URLs for these papers, I'll post them in a few days.

Absentee balloting and Hurrican Katrina

2005-09-13T23:16:00.000-07:00

Today's story highlights something I had not considered yet in the aftermath of the tragedy that has beset Louisiana and Mississippi. Both states will be conducting elections in the next 14 months, a period in which hundreds of thousand of displaced citizens may not have moved back to their homes.

How will these citizens cast a ballot? Will they be allowed to cast absentee ballots? Louisiana law allows an absentee ballot for those "expected to be absent from their parish on election day." Are the parishes ready to handle nearly 1,000,000 absentee ballot requests?

And what does the future hold for Louisiana's second district, if the New Orleans population declines, as some predictions hold, by nearly 50%?

Elections are not on anyone's mind, and rightfully so. But within a few months, as candidates begin to consider runs for office, they will face a ew landscape in Louisiana politics.

National Summit To Save Our Elections | A Call to Rescue Our Democracy

2005-09-11T19:25:00.000-07:00

I've been invited to present a poster on Oregon's vote by mail system at the "National Summit to Save Our Elections" in Portland, OR.

The group seems partially affilated with Verified Voting (www.verifiedvoting.org), a group that has been arguing (I think most ly unsuccessfully) that there was widespread fraud in 2004 (particularly in Ohio).

I have detailed political science's objections to this research in the newsletter of the Elections, Voting, and Political Behavior section of APSA (http://www.apsanet.org/~elections).

I'll present the poster, however. There are some interesting speakers. And even if I disagree with some folks about Ohio in 2004, there is no reason not to give close scrutiny to our elections system.

Washngton county prepares to hold first by-mail elections

2005-08-28T15:13:00.000-07:00

Whatcom County is the next in what is sure to be a long line of Washington state counties switching to by-mail elections. Already, neighbor Oregon has held elections by mail for nearly a decade with few problems. Quite the contrary, Oregon officials believe their system is superior to traditional precinct-based elections with large numbers of absentees (what they call a "mixed" elections system).

In Washington state, more than 75% of voters choose absentee ballots already. And a new state law, requiring paper trails for all ballots, has made it even more cost effective to switch to a full absentee, or fully by mail, system.

As in Oregon, Whatcom County officials are using the US Postal Service to clean their ballot rolls, having removed 4,000 names already as election notices come back "return to sender."

Story referenced here:
http://www.bellinghamherald.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050828/ELECTION/50827002

Early voting is no joke

2005-08-26T10:18:00.000-07:00

A nice column in the Chicago Sun Times by Mark Brown (courtesy of Electionline.org (thanks Doug!) comments on the impact of early voting in Illinois.

Marc does a good job identifying the impact of the change. I'd add a few points.

The "groundhog" day quote way, came from an Oregon GOTV organizer about a decade ago and has been reused over and over again. It's often attributed to Congressman David Wu but that's also wrong.
Marc is right about field organization with early voting. What will be critical is if Illinois (or the counties) make the voter records available before the election. For instance, in Oregon, I can find out the date that your ballot was processed (it is a public record), and therefore can *stop* calling you once you have cast your ballot.
There is dramatic variation in the ease and costs of getting this information. We don't know yet how Illinois will handle this.
In other early voting states, the systems have benefitted Republicans because a) more early voters are Republicans and b) mobilizing the early vote is a cost intensive process, benefitting the better funded party. The third reason is purely speculative on my part at this time, but early voting will detach many voters from the ongoing campaign, thus hurting a party (like the Dems) that rely relatively more on people rather than capital.

Story referenced here:
http://www.suntimes.com/output/brown/cst-nws-brown23.html

Everett Herald editorial critical of vote by mail

2005-08-21T16:10:00.000-07:00

An editorial critical of vote by mail, from Sunday's Everett (WA) Herald. Not fully accurate--as with any voting method, the question to ask is not whether the method is prone to fraud, but whether it is more prone than other methods.

Election officials in Oregon (and I tend to agree with them) admit that vote by mail has flaws and might be taken advantage of (although this is a Class C felony). However, the question is whether traditional voting methods, where all you do is show up at a precinct, sign a paper (with a never verified signature) and vote is more or less prone.

The story referenced is here:

Washington County votes to keep precinct voting

2005-08-19T10:35:00.000-07:00

Snohomish County (WA) commissioners voted 3-2 to keep precinct level voting, even though the state-required paper audit machines will cost nearly $1,000,000.

As I wrote previously, these decisions will be coming fast and furious in Washington state over the next few months, since the state passed a law requiring paper audits. For many counties, they face the choice between retaining precinct polling for a dwindling portion of voters (less than 20% in many counties) and spending hundreds of thousands of dollars, or else simply tossing in the towel and going to all absentee/by mail voting.

See the story referenced here:
http://www.heraldnet.com/stories/05/08/18/100loc_countypolls001.cfm

Another Washington County calls for by-mail voting in response to state law requiring paper records

2005-08-16T16:03:00.000-07:00

HeraldNet: Auditor calls for switch to vote-by-mail election

Turnout issues in Lousiana. Is early voting a cure?

2005-08-16T15:56:00.000-07:00

I've seen some of the data that Louisiana is relying on, when they hope that early voting will increase turnout. It's based on a report issued by Curtis Gans after the 2004 election.

Problem is that Gans's study is incomplete--he only compares differences in turnout from 2000 and 2004 based on one difference: whether or not a state had early voting.

But as this paper, "Consequential Reforms or Innocuous Tinkering? Another Look at Efforts to Increase Turnout in American Elections," written by James T. Smith of Catholic University and John Comer
of University of Nebraska - Lincoln, shows, once you control for all the other reasons that turnout may be higher or lower relative to other states, there is no relationship between turnout and early voting.

To take just one example, the State of Oregon claims on its webpage that vote by mail increases turnout, because turnout in the first post vote by mail presidential election (2000) was higher than in 1996. Two problems. First, Oregon has always been a high turnout state. Second, 2000 was a hard fought election in which Oregon was a battleground state.

More evidence on this point is posted at the earlyvoting website: http://www.earlyvoting.net

2theadvocate.com: News

Absentee Voting by Sri Lankan migrant workers

2005-08-14T16:25:00.000-07:00

A call in another country for voting rights for workers living abroad:

The Peninsula On-line: Qatar's leading English Daily

Carter Baker Commission Report: Ballot Integrity under Oregon's Vote by Mail System

2005-08-09T13:55:00.000-07:00

The Oregon Secretary of State's Office has been kind enough to post my report to their website. The EVIC website will be in place in a few days, but until then:

Ballot Integrity and Voting by mail: The Oregon Experience

Precinct Voting a "Relic", so says Gronke??

2005-08-09T13:52:00.000-07:00

My report to the Carter/Baker commission has made the press. In Maricopa County, where as I reported yesterday, they are debating all-mail voting, my report on Oregon's vote by mail system is making the rounds.

I actually did not call precinct voting a "relic" but said it may become a relic, if current trends continue. Ah, well, so much for fame.

Glad to see that I'm gaining some traction.

Arizona Capitol Times

Kitsap County, WA adopts all by-mail voting

2005-08-09T13:47:00.000-07:00

Kitsap County, on beautiful Bainbridge Island (east of Seattle, across the bay), has announced that it is moving to all absentee voting (essentially, vote by mail).

They took this action, according to the story, because 80% of Kitsap county residents vote absentee anyway, and they want to avoid the cost of obtaining new voting machines that meet HAVA requirements for precinct place voting.

This may end up being an unanticipated consequence of HAVA. By imposing expensive new requirements on the states, many may decide that it's cheaper and easier to simply shift to alternative balloting systems.

See the story here:
kitsapsun.com: Local

Maricopa County Elections Director Endorses By-Mail Voting

2005-08-08T16:31:00.000-07:00

A nice interview in today's Arizona Capitol Times with Karen Osborne, director of elections for Maricopa County, Arizona. Osborne addresses the challenges of administering elections when an area is experiencing rapid growth, and attendant problems with new registrations, change in old registrations, administering provisional ballots, and the like.

There is a fairly extended treatment of mail in balloting by Osborne. She calls it the "most secure" form of any type of voting because they check every signature. Of course, one could imagine more secure systems--for instance, you might have thumbprint or retinal scanning, or more realistically, check government issued photo IDs. Surely both are more secure than a signature verification system, which has its own problems (as outlined in our report to the Carter Baker commission).

Osborne also says that Maricopa County may be establishing "mega" voting centers, analogous to the "super precincts" that are under consideration in other states.

The interview seems to endorse by mail voting, although she expresses concerns that campaigns may have to "peak" 33 days before the election.

Story referenced is here:
Arizona Capitol Times

State charges former mayor with vote fraud

2005-08-02T15:06:00.000-07:00

Update on the absentee ballot fraud case in Virginia

News from The Roanoke Times - State charges former mayor with vote fraud

Mexico's 2006 Election and Expatriate Voting

2005-08-01T17:08:00.000-07:00

Fine article by Maite Salazar.

It is the best and more comprehensive story yet on expatriate voting by Mexicans living abroad (primarily in the United States). It looks like individuals may be charged for the costs of administering the absentee ballot; that millons will be unable to vote because they are not currently registered (and have to return to Mexico to register); and that Mexicans will have to return ballots by certified mail.

There is also a citation to some scholarship on expatriate voting coming out of Harvard and UCSD.

Story referenced in this post:
Will immigrants vote in Mexico's 2006 election?

News from The Roanoke Times -Special grand jury will examine voting

2005-07-28T17:19:00.000-07:00

Another absentee ballot fraud story. Thing is, folks assume absentee balloting is more open to fraud, but we don't have a good baseline for comparison. Regardless, for your consumption ...

News from The Roanoke Times -Special grand jury will examine voting

Early Voting: Does it save money?

2005-07-28T10:10:00.000-07:00

Many claim that early voting, whether relaxed absentee balloting or in-person, saves money. (All of these are "mixed" systems that involve significant levels of day-of-election voting, so are not really comparable to a system like Oregon's where everyone votes by mail.)

I've seen few precise cost estimates, however, and can think of reasons that maintaining polling stations for a few weeks may end up costing more money.

There is a brief reference in today's story, from the New Bern (NC) Sun Journal, that early voting may be more expensive than traditional precinct balloting. They also provide a per-vote cost estimate.

Referenced story:
The New Bern Sun Journal

Early Voting in Israel: Update

2005-07-26T10:11:00.000-07:00

Legislation allowing absentee voting by Israeli expatriates failed, 25-23. Mark Levinson speculates that the Left defeated the bill because they thought it would dilute the Arab vote. Levinson believes this belief is unwarranted, and that high-tech expatriates in particular would be likely to vote for the Left.

Interesting note in the story: 49 countries allow their expatriates to vote in absentia.

Story referenced in this posting:
Jerusalem Post | Breaking News from Israel, the Middle East and the Jewish
World

Early Voting, Get out the Vote, and "Super" precincts

2005-07-26T09:16:00.000-07:00

Today's story in the Charlotte Observer is just the first of many we'll see in the coming years, as early voting extends across the United States.

Traditionally, it was relatively straightforward, if labor and cost intensive, to mobilize voters. You could blanket a geographic location with advertisements, pamphlets, phone calls, and face to face contacts. While the lack of clean overlap between various political, institutional, and commercial boundaries (e.g. census blocks and tracts, state and federal legislative districts, zip codes, and television markets) could complicate the situation, the task of getting voters to the polls has not changed in a fundamental way for decades.

This will all change if many states follow the NC example and create "super precincts." These are instituted as a way to make voting more convenient for early voters, by allowing them to cast their ballot in locations other than their precinct. Presumably these 'super precincts' are contiguous geographically with a number of smaller precincts, although technically that is not necessary. Under HAVA requirements for statewide registration rolls, there is no reason that a voter in, say, Durham NC could not cast a ballot while on vacation in Charlotte, NC, and have it counted correctly. All that would have to happen is that the (presumably computerized) vote counting system has to match up the individual's voter ID with the proper ballot, provide this ballot to the individual, and count the vote.

In this story, Republicans charge that "super precincts" benefit Democrats, although there is little evidence to back this up. It is probably true that the majority of voting errors occur in urban areas, but this has as much to do with density, the complexity of drawing lines, and lack of funding in urban areas (that tend to vote Democratic) than it does with any organized pro-Democratic bias in the system.

Nonetheless, it will be interesting to monitor how super precincts change GOTV efforts and campaigning in the future. Along with other voting reforms, these changes may break the traditional American linkage between geographic location and voting.

Charlotte Observer | 07/25/2005 | Imagine voting at local mall, uptown hotel

Will Mexican Absentee voting hurt Latinos and fuel anti-immigrant sentiments?

2005-07-25T13:25:00.000-07:00

Tom Elias, writing in the Pasadena Star-News, speculates that the spectre of millions of Mexican immigrants waving Mexican flags at rallies for PAN and PRI could end up fueling anti-immigrant sentiments by American citizens.

I raised the intriguing possibility a few days ago, where foreign parties will be organizing large campaign rallies in American cities. I find it an interesting sociological and political phenomenon, but this is the first time I've seen a suggestion that it may be harmful to Latino interests in the US.

Absentee Voting by Ghana Diaspora

2005-07-25T13:21:00.000-07:00

Another article about diaspora voting, this time by Ghanians in the US:

Feature Article of Sunday, 24 July 2005

Earlyvoting

Clarifying NIST's role in evaluating voting systems

Clarifying NIST's role in evaluating voting systems

Absentee ballot fraud in Texas?

New blog

Maryland battle over early voting continues

More on New Orleans early voting

Consolidating polling places in Maine

10,000 + voters cast early ballots for New Orleans mayoral primary

Early voters in WV will use paper ballots

Election Law: More Praise for EAC Commissioner Martinez

Early Voting Begins for New Orleans Primary

How not to merge data

Optical reader glitch snarls absentee voting in Indiana

The Feds are overseeing LA elections

Election Updates: Improving the EAC's surveys

Continued pressure on LA voting rights

SignOnSanDiego.com > News > Military -- Senators ask Rumsfeld to smooth military voting process

Who voted early in Illinois's primary

New OR voting machines hit delay

Lousiana early voting period to begin

9% vote early in Belarus

How to conduct an election after a disaster?

Unanticipated costs of early voting in Ohio

More on the Illinois Early Voting controversy

Elias oped: "Cal ought to give all-mail voting a whirl"

Lawsuit threatened over early voting locations in Cook County

Early voting starts slowly in Illinois

Electronic poll books: applicable to initiative and referenda?

Utah Senate reconsiders early voting

Early voting has begun in Illinois

Sacramento hearing on by-mail voting tomorrow?

Been absent lately..

Dan Lipinski: true absentee?

Overseas Voting and Uniformed Services Voter Registration System

Legislators in LA attempt to get at FEMA list for absentee balloting

Early Voting plan for Illinois announced

Advance voting in Canada

Ridgecrest Daily Independent: Our View

Early voting procedures in the West Bank

Record requirements in Texas may reduce poll access

Maryland election reforum commission report

Proposal for all-mail voting in San Mateo County, CA

Election Updates: Intelligence update --- new book on reforms and voter turnout

Michigan OpEd supports early voting

Absentee Ballot fraud investigation in Hidalgo County, Texas results in indictments

Missorui state legislator's "survey" claims early voting more expensive, not supported by respondents

Continued problems with military absentee balloting

Election Updates

Absentee ballot request from Mexicans abroad off to a slow start

NY Lawmakers push for no-excuse absentee balloting

Early voting in Iraq's parliamentary election to begin December 12th

Absentee voting changes requested in SD

Voting reform goes down in CA and OH

Maryland commission appointed to study election systems

Claims of electoral irregularities tied to absentee balloting in Detroit

ACLU challenges ID requirements for Absentee balloting in Arizona

More debate over absentee balloting in Ohio

Campouts for the Vote! A new youth mobilization strategy?

Parties reported to push absentee balloting higher in NJ

Taft to sign new legislation on 'no-fault' absentee voting

No Excuse absentee balloting passes in Ohio

Conflicting Reports on Lousiana Population Shifts

'E-Stonia' online vote called a success

WSJ article on vote by phone

I think I was quoted ...

Population Loss Altering Louisiana Political Landscape

More on the EDS Report: How to count early voting

How to interpret the EDS / EAC Report

Upcoming Ohio vote on early voting

"Out of Country" Voting (OCV) in Conflict Zones

For a real debate over REAL ID's

Race and Absentee Balloting

More Carter-Baker commentary

Brennan Center folks wrong on race and absentee balloting

When to remove partisanship from partisan elections

Carter Baker Report

Arggh

Bill in US House attempts to guarantee absentee voting rights to displaced citizens

Belated Blogging of APSA